this research studies the application of hybrid algorithms for predicting the prices of crude oil. brent crude oil price data and hybrid intelligent algorithm (time delay neural network, probabilistic neural network, and fuzzy logic) were used to build intelligent decision support systems for predicting crude oil prices. the proposed model was able to predict future crude oil prices from august...

This paper proposes a method of distinguishing between the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and oil inventories on the US gasoline prices. I show that gasoline price adjustments are faster and stronger for anticipated changes in oil prices and inventory levels than for unanticipated changes. The dynamics of the gasoline price response depends on the relative importa...

Implementation of hydraulic fracturing dramatically altered the fundamentals in the oil and gas markets. A new technology rst got implemented in the natural gas market, but by 2012 unprecedentedly low gas prices forced most exploration rms to switch to shale oil exploration. Large capital expenditure on drilling activity resulted in the growth of oil production in the US, and likely triggered t...

2004 and by more than 40% since the beginning of 2005.Though the U.S. economy has apparently absorbed this supply shock well so far, the path of future oil prices remains a concern for monetary policymakers. Higher oil prices can damp demand, as consumers and firms spend more of their budgets on oil-related products and less on other goods and services. Furthermore, if higher oil prices are pas...

abstract: this paper discusses two topics. at first, it uses continuous wavelet (morlet) transform, coherency, and phase angle analysis to study the effect of mean volatility in opec crude oil prices, wti crude oil prices, brent crude oil prices and iran’s crude oil prices on the iran’s reer. to this end, the monthly data of the variables for years 2003 to 2012 is used. coherency analysis revea...

This paper examines the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and gasoline inventory on US gasoline prices. We estimate empirical responses to anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and gasoline inventory and show that gasoline price adjustments are faster and stronger for anticipated changes in oil prices and inventory levels than for unanticipated changes....

The paper presents a theory of nominal asset prices for competitively owned oil. Focusing on monetary e¤ects, with ‡exible oil prices the US dollar oil price should follow the aggregate US price level. But with rigid nominal oil prices, the nominal oil price jumps proportionally to nominal interest rate increases. We …nd evidence for structural breaks in the nominal oil price that are used to i...

The crude oil prices as well as the effective exchange rate of the dollar are both time series and non -stationary as well. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between real effective exchange rate and crude oil prices by hybrid wavelet network. We use a simple Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) based wavelet decomposition to analyse the relatio nship between real effective...

oil prices may be having a direct and indirect effect through the exchange rate on the price of agricultural commodities. in this paper, the impact of world oil prices and exchange rate shocks on prices of specific agricultural commodities including wheat, corn, soybeans and sunflowers in iran is discussed. for this purpose, vector autoregressive model with monthly data over the period 2010-199...